Coffee Break 11/25/2019

LAST WEEK IN A NUTSHELL

  • Flash reading of manufacturing PMIs were better than expected in Japan, France, Germany and in the US, but service sector disappointed in Europe.
  • President Xi of China reiterated his willingness to work out an initial trade pact with the US.
  • The Federal reserve stated in its latest minutes that it was assessing the impact of the three “insurance” rate cuts on the economy.
  • ECB president Lagarde indicated that Europe needed a new policy mix (including fiscal support) to boost growth in the region.

 

WHAT’S NEXT?

  • The US’s propensity for consumption will be put to the test on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Markets will monitor the consumer confidence release, too.
  • Germany will publish its IFO business climate index for November. We are looking for further confirmation of a bottoming-out in the weakest link of the euro zone economy.
  • 25 days to the next scheduled tariff hike by US on consumer goods. Phase 1 deal signed or not, the US should avoid hiking tariffs 10 days before Christmas.
  • On the data front, we expect flash CPI inflation for the euro zone and Japan.

INVESTMENT CONVICTIONS

  • Core scenario
    • Our medium-term central scenario remains sligthly constructive as we expect a soft-landing. We again took some profit on our equity allocation mostly via European equities. We are tactically overweight equities vs bonds.
    • The main uncertainties for financial markets remain the trade conflict and the bottoming in manufacturing. Rolling back existing tariffs would clearly be good news for global trade perspectives.
    • Central banks have reached massive accommodation policies. In the US, the Fed started buying Treasury bills to add liquidity into the system. The accommodative stance is becoming a medium-term tailwind for the global growth/inflation mix.
    • In Emerging economies, Chinese authorities are mitigating the impact of the trade war and slowing global growth by using currency, monetary and fiscal tools, avoiding excessive measures like in 2015.
  • Market views
    • Decrease of political risks: increasing probability of trade deal between the US and China, low risk of a hard Brexit, increasing talk of a EU Banking union.
    • There is a possibility of an extension of the year-end rally on the basis of a kind of “bullish” capitulation rally on improving hopes.
    • On the other hand, fundamentals will not suddenly become better and political execution risks have not disappeared as neither a Brexit deal nor a Phase 1 trade deal are signed yet.
    • The relative equity valuation vs. bonds remains attractive.
  • Risks
    • The US-China trade conflict. The United States and China are working on drafting an agreement, but China doubts if a long-term trade deal is possible with President Trump.
    • Domestic political issues in the US (e.g. formal impeachment process and election run-up) are likely to dominate. These could trigger growth shocks and attractive entry points.
    • Geopolitical issues (e.g. Iran, Hong Kong, Chile) are still part of unresolved current affairs. Their outcome could still tip the scales from a soft landing towards a hard landing.

 

RECENT ACTIONS IN THE ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY

We have further taken some profit this month, mostly via our European equity exposure. Hence, our positioning is now slightly overweight. We currently favour US equities. We are neutral Emerging Markets, Japanese and EMU equities. We remain cautious about exposure to government rates in developed countries. We diversify out of low-yielding government bonds via exposure to credit and Emerging markets debt. In terms of currencies, we keep a long JPY and an exposure to gold as hedges.

 

CROSS ASSET STRATEGY

  • We are slightly overweight equities
    • We are overweight US equities. Equities did perform well since our entry points during the summer in spite of the economic slowdown. However, the region remains a relatively safe choice and as a market melt-up cannot be excluded on rolling back existing tariffs.
    • We are neutral Emerging markets equities. The region has underperformed year-to-date and could offer some upside. A dovish US Fed is a tailwind as the USD weakens somewhat.
    • We have taken profit on euro zone equities. We took profit and our positioning is now neutral. The latest macro data show signs of resilience. A window of opportunity on fiscal accommodation is staying open with more ECB visibility.
    • We are slightly underweight Europe ex-EMU equities and neutral UK.. We approach a resolution of Brexit but political noise ahead of the December election obscures the plausible outcomes. Valuation is attractive and positioning is low. Many non-European investors have shun Europe so far but could look twice as the balance of risks improves.
    • We stay neutral Japanese equities. Absence of conviction, as a catalyst is missing. It has to be seen if household consumption can resist the increase of the VAT rate from 8 to 10% that took place early-October.
  • We are underweight bonds, keeping a short duration and diversify out of government bonds.
    • We expect rates and bond yields, to creep up very gradually but stay low.
    • Christine Lagarde has begun her tenure as President of the European Central Bank. She faces two major challenges: healing the rift between the policy makers of the governing council and national governments still being reluctant to take over the baton with fiscal stimulus policies.
    • We diversify out of low-yielding government bonds, and our preference goes to Emerging debt and EUR-issued corporate bonds.
    • Emerging market debt has an attractive carry and the dovish stance of the Fed represents a tailwind. Trade uncertainty and idiosyncratic risks in Turkey and Argentina are headwinds.
    • We also have an exposure to gold in order to increase the portfolio hedging.